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ISSN : 1225-6692(Print)
ISSN : 2287-4518(Online)
Journal of the Korean earth science society Vol.34 No.6 pp.515-523
DOI : https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2013.34.6.515

백두산 화산재 피해 시나리오에 따른 강원도 지역 농작물의 경제적 피해 추정

이윤정1·김수도2·천준석3·우 균3,4,*
1부산대학교 IT기반융합산업창의인력양성사업단, 609-735,
부산광역시 금정구 부산대학로63번길 2
2부산대학교 사회급변현상연구소, 609-735, 부산광역시 금정구 부산대학로63번길 2
3부산대학교 전자전기컴퓨터공학과, 609-735, 부산광역시 금정구 부산대학로63번길 2
4LG전자 스마트제어센터, 609-735, 부산광역시 금정구 부산대학로63번길 2
백두산 화산 폭발 시 남한 지역은 동해안을 중심으로 화산재에 의한 피해가 예상된다. 적은 양의 화산재라고 할지라도 농작물의 피해나 토양의 산성화를 유발하는 등 농업 분야에 심각한 영향을 줄 수 있다. 이에 이 논문에서는 화산재에 의한 농작물의 피해를 추정하고 구글 지도를 통해 시각화하고자 한다. 이를 위해서 화산재에 대한 피해 예측모델이 필요하다. 화산재 위험은 농작물의 종류와 화산재 두께에 따라 다르므로 피해 예측 모델의 취약도 함수는 화산재 두께와 농작물의 손상률 간의 관계를 나타내어야 한다. 이 논문에서는 RiskScape에서 정의한 화산재 두께에 따른 농작물별 손상률을 이용하여 취약도 함수를 정의하였다. 이 취약도 함수를 농작물 생산량과 가격 정보에 적용하여 화산재 두께에 따른 농작물 피해액을 추정할 수 있다. 또한, 이 논문에서는 화산재의 피해가 예측되는 강원도 지역을 대상으로 화산재에 의한 농작물 피해를 추정하였다. 연구 결과 2010년 강원도 농업 총 생산량을 기준으로 했을 때 화산재가 약 4 mm 정도 쌓이게 되면 농작물 피해액은 약 6,351억 원에 달하는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 강원도 총 농업생산액의 약 50%에 해당한다. 이 논문에서는 화산재에 의한 농작물의 1차적인 피해만을 고려하고 있다. 하지만 화산재는 토양 오염이나 시설물과 같은 농가의 자산에 잠재적인 위험을 줄 수 있다. 따라서 농업 분야 전체에 대한 총 피해 규모를 추정하기 위해서는 이와 같은 2차적인 피해도 함께 고려해야 할 것이다.

Estimation of Economic Losses on the Agricultural Sector in Gangwon Province, Korea, Based on the Baekdusan Volcanic Ash Damage Scenario

*Corresponding author: woogyun@pusan.ac.kr

Tel: +82 51 510 3518

Fax: +82 51 510 3939
, Yun-Jung Lee1, Su-Do Kim2, Joonseok Chun3, and Gyun Woo3,4,*

1Creative Human Resource Development Program for IT Convergence, Pusan National University,
Busan 609-735, Korea
2Research Institute for Social Criticality, Pusan National University, Busan 609-735, Korea
3Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Pusan National University, Busan 609-735, Korea
4Smart Control Center of LG Electronics, Pusan National University, Busan 609-735, Korea

Abstract

The eastern coast of South Korea is expected to be damaged by volcanic ash when Mt. Baekdusan volcanoerupts. Even if the amount of volcanic ash is small, it can be fatal on the agricultural sector withering many plants andcausing soil acidification. Thus, in this paper, we aim to estimate agricultural losses caused by the volcanic ash and tovisualize them with Google map. To estimate the volcanic ash losses, a damage assessment model is needed. As thevolcanic ash hazard depends on the kind of a crops and the ash thickness, the fragility function of damage assessmentmodel should represent the relation between ash thickness and damage rate of crops. Thus, we model the fragilityfunction using the damage rate for each crop of RiskScape. The volcanic ash losses can be calculated with theagricultural output and the price of each crop using the fragility function. This paper also represents the estimated resultof the losses in Gangwon province, which is most likely to get damaged by volcanic ashes in Korea. According to theresult with gross agricultural output of Gangwon province in 2010, the amount of volcanic ash losses runs nearly 635,124million wons in Korean currency if volcanic ash is accumulated over four millimeters. This amount represents about 50%of the gross agricultural output of Gangwon province. We consider the damage only for the crops in this paper. However,a volcanic ash fall has the potential to damage the assets for a farm, including the soil fertility and installations. Thus, toestimate the total amount of volcanic ash damage for the whole agricultural sectors, these collateral damages should alsobe considered.

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