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ISSN : 1225-6692(Print)
ISSN : 2287-4518(Online)
Journal of the Korean earth science society Vol.34 No.4 pp.336-344
DOI : https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2013.34.4.336

북서태평양 태풍발생빈도 예측을 위한 다중회귀모델 개발

최기선*·차유미·장기호·이종호
기상청 국가태풍센터, 699-942, 제주특별자치도 서귀포시 남원읍 서성로 810번길 2
이 연구는 북서태평양에서 여름철(7 9월) 동안 발생하는 태풍 빈도를 예측하기 위한 다중회귀모델을 4가지 원격패턴을 이용하여 개발하였다. 이 패턴은 4 5월 동안 동아시아 대륙에서의 시베리아 고기압 진동, 북태평양에서의 북태평양 진동, 호주근처의 남극진동, 적도 중앙태평양에서의 대기순환으로 대표된다. 이 통계모델은 이 모델로부터 예측된 높은 태풍발생빈도의 해와 낮은 태풍발생빈도의 해 사이에 차를 분석함으로써 검증되었다. 높은 태풍발생빈도의 해에는 다음과 같은 4가지의 아노말리 특성을 나타내었다: i) 동아시아 대륙에 고기압성 순환 아노말리(양의 시베리아 고기압 진동), ii) 북태평양에 남저북고의 기압계 아노말리, iii) 호주 근처에 저기압성 순환 아노말리(양의 남극진동), iv) 봄부터 여름 동안 니뇨3.4 지역에 저기압성 순환 아노말리. 따라서 적도 서태평양에서 무역풍 아노말리는 양반구의 아열대 서태평양에 위치한 저기압성 순환 아노말리에 의해 약화되었다. 결국, 이러한 기압계 아노말리의 공간분포는 열대 서태평양에 대류를 억제하는 대신 아열대 서태평양에 대류를 강화시켰다.

Multiple Linear Regression Model for Prediction of Summer Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific

*Corresponding author: choiks@kma.go.kr

Tel: +82 64 801 0230

Fax: +82 64 805 0366
, Ki-Seon Choi*, Yu-Mi Cha, Ki-Ho Chang, and Jong-Ho Lee

National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration, Jeju 699-942, Korea

Abstract

This study has developed a multiple linear regression model (MLRM) for the seasonal prediction of thesummer tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) using the four teleconnectionpatterns. These patterns are representative of the Siberian high Oscillation (SHO) in the East Asian continent, the NorthPacific Oscillation (NPO) in the North Pacific, Antarctic oscillation (AAO) near Australia, and the circulation in theequatorial central Pacific during the boreal spring (April May). This statistical model is verified by analyzing thedifferences hindcasted for the high and low TCGF years. The high TCGF years are characterized by the followinganomalous features: four anomalous teleconnection patterns such as anticyclonic circulation (positive SHO phase) in theEast Asian continent, pressure pattern like north high and south low in the North Pacific, and cyclonic circulation (positiveAAO phase) near Australia, and cyclonic circulation in the Nino3.4 region were strengthened during the period fromboreal spring to boreal summer. Thus, anomalous trade winds in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) were weakened byanomalous cyclonic circulations that located in the subtropical western Pacific (SWP) in both hemispheres. Consequently,this spatial distribution of anomalous pressure pattern suppressed convection in the TWP, strengthened convection in theSWP instead.

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