Journal Search Engine
Search Advanced Search Adode Reader(link)
Download PDF Export Citaion korean bibliography PMC previewer
ISSN : 1225-6692(Print)
ISSN : 2287-4518(Online)
Journal of the Korean earth science society Vol.34 No.4 pp.303-312

중위도 기압골과 태풍 산바의 이동속도와의 상호작용에 대한 예측에서 모델 바이어스 경향분석

최기선1*·Prapaporn Wongsaming2·박상욱1·차유미1·이우정1·오임용1·이재신1·
1기상청 국가태풍센터, 699-942, 제주특별자치도 서귀포시 남원읍 서성로 810번길 2

2Numerical Weather Prediction Division, Weather Forecast Bureau, Thai Meteorological Department, Thailand
중위도 기압골과 태풍 이동속도와의 상호작용에 대한 예측에서 한국기상청 전구자료동화예측시스템(GDAPS) 모델 바이어스 경향을 알아보기 위해 태풍 산바 사례가 선정되었다. 이 연구는 태풍 분석 및 예측 시스템(TAPS) 및 기상정보시스템 3(COMIS 3)에 저장된 태풍자료로부터 2012년 9월 15일 00UTC로 초기화 된 한국 기상청 GDAPS 분석장과 예측장을 사용하였다. 먼저 해면기압장은 500 hPa 제트구역과 연관하여 중위도 하층 저기압이 발생됨을 보여주었다. 이후 태풍 산바가 중위도 지역으로 들어온 후, 태풍의 이동속도가 증가될 것이라 예측되었다. 특히, 태풍 산바가 9월 17일 00UTC와 06UTC에 전향을 할 시점에 태풍 산바는 중위도 기압골 전면에서 중위도 서풍대와 상호작용을 하였다. 반면, 기상청 GDAPS 해면기압 예측장은 하층 중위도 저기압의 강도를 분석장보다 약하게 예측하였다. 결국 태풍 산바의 이동속도에 영향을 주는 중위도 순환은 분석장보다 느리게 나타났다. 이 순환은 500 hPa에서 제트가 약화됨으로서 증명되었다. 이런 이유로, 기상청 GDAPS 예측장은 태풍 산바가 중위도 기압골과 상호작용함으로써 느린 이동속도의 바이어스를 나타내었다.

An Analysis of Model Bias Tendency in Forecast for the Interaction between Mid-latitude Trough and Movement Speed of Typhoon Sanba

*Corresponding author:

Tel: +82 64 801 0231

Fax: +82 64 805 0366
, Ki-Seon Choi1*, Prapaporn Wongsaming2, Sangwook Park1, Yu-mi Cha1, Woojeong Lee1, Imyong Oh1, Jae-Shin Lee1, Sang-Boo Jeong1, Dong-Jin Kim1, Ki-Ho Chang1, Jiyoung Kim1, Wang-Sun Yoon1, and Jong-Ho Lee1

1National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration, Jeju 699-942, Korea
2Numerical Weather Prediction Division, Weather Forecast Bureau, Thai Meteorological Department, Thailand


Typhoon Sanba was selected for describing the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Global DataAssimilation Prediction System (GDAPS) model bias tendency in forecast for the interaction between mid latitude troughand movement speed of typhoon. We used the KMA GDAPS analyses and forecasts initiated 00 UTC 15 September2012 from the historical typhoon record using Typhoon Analysis and Prediction System (TAPS) and CombinedMeteorological Information System 3 (COMIS 3). Sea level pressure fields illustrated a development of the low level midlatitude cyclogenesis in relation to Jet Maximum at 500 hPa. The study found that after Sanba entered the mid latitudedomain, its movement speed was forecast to be accelerated. Typically, Snaba interacted with mid latitude westerlies at thefront of mid latitude trough. This event occurred when the Sanba was nearing recurvature at 00 and 06 UTC 17September. The KMA GDAPS sea level pressure forecasts provided the low level mid latitude cyclone that was weakerthan what it actually analyzed in field. As a result, the mid latitude circulations affecting on Sanba’s movement speed wasslower than what the KMA GDAPS actually analyzed in field. It was found that these circulations occurred due to theweak mid tropospheric jet maximum at the 500 hPa. In conclusion, the KMA GDAPS forecast tends to slow a bias ofslow movement speed when Sanba interacted with the mid latitude trough.


1.Carr, L.E. and Elsberry R.L., 1994, Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part I. Approach Overview and Description of Meteorological Basis. NPS-MR-94-002, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943, 273 pp.
2.Carr, L.E. and Elsberry R.L., 2000a, Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors. Part I: Tropical Region Error Sources. Weather and Forecasting, 15, 641-661.
3.Carr, L.E. and Elsberry R.L., 2000b, Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors. Part II: Midlatitude Circulation Influences. Weather and Forecasting, 15, 662-681.
4.Choi, K.S., Kang, K.R., Kim, D.W., Hwang, H.S., and Lee, S.R., 2009, A study on the characteristics of tropical cyclone passage frequency over the western North Pacific using Empirical Orthogonal Function. Journal of Korean Earth Science Society, 30, 721-733. (In Korea)
5.Choi, K.S. and Kim, T.R., 2011a, Development of a diagnostic index on the approach of typhoon affecting Korean Peninsula. Journal of Korean Earth Science Society, 32, 347-359. (In Korea)
6.Choi, K.S. and Kim, T.R., 2011b, Regime shift of the early 1980s in the characteristics of the tropical cyclone affecting Korea. Journal of Korean Earth Science Society, 32, 453-460.
7.COMET Program, December 2010 2nd edition: Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, Tropical Cyclone. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR).
8.Guard, C.P., 1977, Operational Application of a Tropical Cyclone Recurvature/non-Recurvature Study Based on 200 mb Wind Fields. FLEWEACEN Tech Note JTWC 77-1, 40 pp.
9.Hodanish, S.J., 1991, An Observational Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Recurvatures. Colo. State Dept. of Atmos. Sci. Paper No. 480, Colo. State Univ., Fort Collins, CO 80523.
10.Kehoe, R.M., Boothe M. A., and Elsberry R.L., 2007, Dynamical Tropical Cyclone 96- and 120-h Track Forecast Errors in the Western North Pacific. Weather and Forecast, 22, 520-538.
11.Kim, H.S., Kim J.H., Ho C.H., and Chu P.S., 2011, Pattern Classification of Typhoon Tracks Using the Fuzzy c-Means Clustering Method. Journal of Climate, 24, 488-508.
12.Lander, M.A., 1994, Description of a Monsoon 'Gyre' Circulation and Its Effects on the Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific during August 1991. Weather and Forecasting, 9, 640-654.
13.Lui, K.S. and Chan C.L., 2002, Synoptic Flow Pattern Associated with small and Large Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific. Monthly Weather Review, 130, 2134-2142.
14.Sampson, C.R., Neumann, C.J., Jeffries, R.A., 1995, Tropical Cyclone Forecasters Reference Guide 4. Tropical Cyclone Motion, Influence on Tropical Cyclone Motion, NRL/PU/7541-95-0010. Naval Research Laboratory.
15.Weir, R.C., 1982, Predicting the Acceleration of Northward-moving Tropical Cyclones Using Uppertropospheric Winds. NAVOCEANCOMCEN/JTWC Technical Note 82-2, U.S. Naval Oceanography Command Center/Joint Typhoon Warning Center, FPO San Francisco, CA 96630, 40 pp.
16.Xu, J. and Gray W.M., 1982, Environmental circulations associated with tropical cyclones experiencing fast, slow, and looping motion. Atmos. Sc, paper No. 346, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 23-27, 34-37 pp.