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ISSN : 1225-6692(Print)
ISSN : 2287-4518(Online)
Journal of the Korean earth science society Vol.34 No.4 pp.303-312
DOI : https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2013.34.4.303

중위도 기압골과 태풍 산바의 이동속도와의 상호작용에 대한 예측에서 모델 바이어스 경향분석

최기선1*·Prapaporn Wongsaming2·박상욱1·차유미1·이우정1·오임용1·이재신1·
정상부1·김동진1·장기호1·김지영1·윤왕선1·이종호1
1기상청 국가태풍센터, 699-942, 제주특별자치도 서귀포시 남원읍 서성로 810번길 2

2Numerical Weather Prediction Division, Weather Forecast Bureau, Thai Meteorological Department, Thailand
중위도 기압골과 태풍 이동속도와의 상호작용에 대한 예측에서 한국기상청 전구자료동화예측시스템(GDAPS) 모델 바이어스 경향을 알아보기 위해 태풍 산바 사례가 선정되었다. 이 연구는 태풍 분석 및 예측 시스템(TAPS) 및 기상정보시스템 3(COMIS 3)에 저장된 태풍자료로부터 2012년 9월 15일 00UTC로 초기화 된 한국 기상청 GDAPS 분석장과 예측장을 사용하였다. 먼저 해면기압장은 500 hPa 제트구역과 연관하여 중위도 하층 저기압이 발생됨을 보여주었다. 이후 태풍 산바가 중위도 지역으로 들어온 후, 태풍의 이동속도가 증가될 것이라 예측되었다. 특히, 태풍 산바가 9월 17일 00UTC와 06UTC에 전향을 할 시점에 태풍 산바는 중위도 기압골 전면에서 중위도 서풍대와 상호작용을 하였다. 반면, 기상청 GDAPS 해면기압 예측장은 하층 중위도 저기압의 강도를 분석장보다 약하게 예측하였다. 결국 태풍 산바의 이동속도에 영향을 주는 중위도 순환은 분석장보다 느리게 나타났다. 이 순환은 500 hPa에서 제트가 약화됨으로서 증명되었다. 이런 이유로, 기상청 GDAPS 예측장은 태풍 산바가 중위도 기압골과 상호작용함으로써 느린 이동속도의 바이어스를 나타내었다.

An Analysis of Model Bias Tendency in Forecast for the Interaction between Mid-latitude Trough and Movement Speed of Typhoon Sanba

*Corresponding author: choiks@kma.go.kr

Tel: +82 64 801 0231

Fax: +82 64 805 0366
, Ki-Seon Choi1*, Prapaporn Wongsaming2, Sangwook Park1, Yu-mi Cha1, Woojeong Lee1, Imyong Oh1, Jae-Shin Lee1, Sang-Boo Jeong1, Dong-Jin Kim1, Ki-Ho Chang1, Jiyoung Kim1, Wang-Sun Yoon1, and Jong-Ho Lee1

1National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration, Jeju 699-942, Korea
2Numerical Weather Prediction Division, Weather Forecast Bureau, Thai Meteorological Department, Thailand

Abstract

Typhoon Sanba was selected for describing the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Global DataAssimilation Prediction System (GDAPS) model bias tendency in forecast for the interaction between mid latitude troughand movement speed of typhoon. We used the KMA GDAPS analyses and forecasts initiated 00 UTC 15 September2012 from the historical typhoon record using Typhoon Analysis and Prediction System (TAPS) and CombinedMeteorological Information System 3 (COMIS 3). Sea level pressure fields illustrated a development of the low level midlatitude cyclogenesis in relation to Jet Maximum at 500 hPa. The study found that after Sanba entered the mid latitudedomain, its movement speed was forecast to be accelerated. Typically, Snaba interacted with mid latitude westerlies at thefront of mid latitude trough. This event occurred when the Sanba was nearing recurvature at 00 and 06 UTC 17September. The KMA GDAPS sea level pressure forecasts provided the low level mid latitude cyclone that was weakerthan what it actually analyzed in field. As a result, the mid latitude circulations affecting on Sanba’s movement speed wasslower than what the KMA GDAPS actually analyzed in field. It was found that these circulations occurred due to theweak mid tropospheric jet maximum at the 500 hPa. In conclusion, the KMA GDAPS forecast tends to slow a bias ofslow movement speed when Sanba interacted with the mid latitude trough.

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